Use expected value to compare bets, business choices, project costs, or everyday decisions with uncertain outcomes. Enter each possible result and its probability to get a weighted average, then compare options side by side or test how a changed probability affects the result. Leave with the calculation, a comparison table, and a plain-language interpretation of what the numbers do—and don’t—show.
Expected Value
Calculate expected value to compare uncertain choices using outcomes and their probabilities.
Use Expected Value
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What it writes
- Expected value calculation
- Side-by-side option comparison
- Plain-language result interpretation
How to use it
Include every possible outcome, its probability, and any upfront cost or payout in your first message. Say whether probabilities are estimates, and name the options you want compared.
What you bring
- Possible outcomes for each option
- Probability for each outcome
- Costs or payouts in consistent units
- Estimate probabilities for each outcome
A good fit for
- Comparing two business projects with different costs and possible returns
- Checking whether a wager’s payout justifies its stated odds
- Estimating the average cost of a decision with several possible outcomes
Ways to start
A few requests this Agent can handle.
A project costs $8,000 and has a 30% chance of earning $20,000, a 50% chance of earning $5,000, and a 20% chance of earning nothing. What’s its expected value?
A raffle ticket costs $10. There’s a 1% chance to win $500 and a 99% chance to win nothing. Calculate the expected value and explain what it means.
Option A has a 60% chance of gaining $4,000 and a 40% chance of losing $2,000. Option B pays $1,000 for sure. Compare their expected values.
Good to know
This workspace provides text assistance.
- Personalized investment or financial advice
- Results depend on the probabilities and outcomes you enter
- Expected value does not capture risk tolerance or nonnumeric factors
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Can I use the response in my work?
Use it as a draft to review and adapt. Verify calculations, facts, rights, and suitability before relying on it. Do not provide information you do not have permission to share.
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