For analysts, business owners, and planners weighing recession risk, compare GDP growth, payrolls, unemployment, inflation, and yield-curve figures across periods. See which measures are weakening, which remain resilient, and where the signals conflict. Leave with an indicator-by-indicator assessment, stated assumptions, and a short briefing you can use in a planning discussion.
Recession Signals
Compare recession indicators across dates and regions to spot conflicting economic signals.
Use Recession Signals
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What it writes
- Indicator-by-indicator recession signal assessment
- Period comparison with diverging signals noted
- Economic-risk briefing with assumptions and uncertainties
How to use it
Include the country, exact dates, units, and figures for each indicator in your first message. Say what decision the analysis will inform, such as hiring plans or inventory levels, so the comparison focuses on relevant signals.
What you bring
- Figures with dates and geographic scope
- Indicators and comparison periods
- Planning question or audience
- Gather the figures you want compared
A good fit for
- Checking whether slowing GDP and rising unemployment point to recession risk
- Comparing yield-curve signals with payroll growth over two quarters
- Preparing an economic-risk briefing for a company planning meeting
Ways to start
A few requests this Agent can handle.
For the United States, compare Q1 and Q2: GDP growth fell from 2.1% to 1.2%, payroll gains slowed from 210,000 to 95,000, and unemployment rose from 3.8% to 4.1%.
Assess recession signals in Canada from January through June: unemployment rose from 5.8% to 6.2%, retail sales fell 1.4%, and the 10-year/2-year yield spread moved from -0.4 to 0.1 percentage points.
Make a one-page recession-risk briefing for our manufacturing leadership meeting using these figures: German industrial output fell 2% year over year, GDP was flat, and unemployment edged up from 5.9% to 6.1%.
Good to know
This workspace provides text assistance.
- Investment advice or a definitive recession prediction
- Medical, legal, or financial advice
- Cannot check live economic releases or market data
- Assessment depends on the figures and definitions you enter
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